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Two NFL player props for Texans-Colts on Saturday night
Houston Texans running back Devin Singletary (26). Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Two NFL player props for Texans-Colts on Saturday night

We have a huge AFC South clash on Saturday night this week between the Texans and Colts. The winner secures a playoff spot, with an outside chance at a division title too. Both defenses have had their fair share of vulnerabilities, opening the door for a player prop on both ends.

Alec Pierce over 15.5 longest reception (-114 FanDuel)

Houston's secondary has been one I've had no qualms with targeting for over a month now, and a big reason why is the amount of big passes they're letting up. On the season, the Texans are allowing 3.63 passes of 20+ yards per game, tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league.

Over the past six weeks, Houston has allowed 26 passes of 20+ yards, the third-most in the NFL. That's a secondary I'd like to pick on, and as it relates to explosive plays, the natural choice is Alec Pierce.

Pierce tops Colts WRs in the metrics I care about as it relates to a long reception. His average depth of target is 15.7, he's averaging 16.1 yards/catch, and 30% of his targets are coming 20+ yards down the field.

The man is averaging more yards per catch than what his longest reception is set at, that's a great sign. Pierce had a 58-yard catch last week, and he's over this 15.5 line in each of the past two meetings with the Texans. Load me up some Pierce on Saturday night.

.5u: Devin Singletary 55+ yards and TD (+197 ESPN)

ESPN has far and away the best price on a combination like this, so I'm jumping on it. By all means, bet Singletary's touchdown standalone at +110; I'll happily tack on a baseline of 55 yards.

Singletary has emerged as Houston's lead back, taking 64 carries over the past four games, averaging 77.5 rushing yards per game in that stretch. The Colts have been generous to running backs this year, allowing the fifth-most yards per game (106.5) to the position. They're also allowing the seventh-most touchdowns per game to the position.

I'm moving down to just a .5u wager on this combo because the touchdowns have not been overwhelming for the Houston back, and his biggest game was when C.J. Stroud was not active. I still think the matchup is strong and it's what I feel best about on the Texans end in this massive game.


Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use. 


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