Equibase Analysis: Sumter Should Fire In San Francisco Mile

Four horses in the field are going for the 10th wins in their careers. One of those is Great Britain-bred Lammas, who won the G3 Berkeley Handicap in the fall of 2022 and who has won two races in a row. Another is Freeport Joe, who won the All American Stakes in May of 2022, but hasn’t won since January of last year. Irish-bred I’m A Gambler is another nine-time winner, with all of those wins coming in Europe. He is winless in eight races since importing to North America. I’mgonnabesomebody won the Bull Dog Stakes last fall and is another pretty consistent runner.

Then there’s the 2023 San Francisco Mile Stakes winner, Balnikhov, an Irish-bred who most recently finished fifth in the Thunder Road Stakes in February, his eighth straight loss since his victory one year ago. Il Bellator was only beaten a half-length in last year’s edition of this race but is another who is winless since then (in five races). Air Force Red has won five of 16 career races all on grass, including the G2 Joe Hernandez Stakes in December of 2022. Similar to many of these, he hasn’t won in 2023, or 2024 to date.

Astronomer nearly won the G2 City of Hope Mile last September, before much poorer 12^th- and fifth-place efforts and a five-month layoff. Clovisconnection likes to win races, with seven victories from 11 races including in the non-graded Robert Rupret Derby on the grass last August. Sumter ran the best race of his career earlier this month when third in the G3 American Stakes and may run even better in this race. Similarly, Irish-bred Cathkin Peak, who was stakes placed earlier in his career when second in the City of Hope Mile Stakes in 2022, enters the race off a strong win in lower level company and may be capable of another top effort. Coalinga Road won the Turf Classic Stakes for California-breds in January 2023, but is winless in six races since then. Prince Abu Dhabi rounds out the field as the also-eligible who can run if another horse scratches. He’s won six of eight career starts including his most recent race, a sprint, in preparation for this longer race.

Win contenders:

Sumter ships up from Southern California for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella, off a fine third of 10 finish in the similar American Stakes just a bit over three weeks ago. That effort earned Sumter a career-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure. Sumter finished fourth in the higher level G2 Seabiscuit Handicap last fall with a 110 figure and those two efforts are his two most recent tries in two-turn turf races like the San Francisco Mile. When wanting to know how trainers based on one circuit perform on another, Equibase’s Race Lens comes in very handy and in this case an easy query regarding how Mandella fares with horses he runs on the Golden Gate turf who made their most recent start in Southern California reveals very strong record of winning five of his last 10 starts. Jockey Tiago Pereira, who has won four of eight races for Mandella going back to the beginning of 2023, takes the mount and with the that last race Equibase Speed Figure one of the best in the field, it appears Sumter has a big shot to win this race.

Lammas earned the highest last figure in the field 116, in his most recent start. That was when winning his second in a row on the all-weather main track at Golden Gate. Lammas has also won on turf at Golden Gate last September in the Sam Spear Memorial Stakes. Moving back to the turf is not an issue for a horse who puts “A” races together, evidenced by a strong career record of 9-6-4 in 29 races. Jockey Orozco rode Lammas for the first time in his win one before last, then again last out and with a ground saving inside post and a big late kick, Lammas could win this third in a row.

Honorable mention goes to Cathkin Peak and Prince Abu Dhabi, the latter being the only also-eligible in the field so needing one of the 12 horses in the main body of the race to scratch. Cathkin Peak won his most recent race on March 24 with a strong rally from last of eight, earning a competitive 105 figure. Cathkin Peak was claimed out of that race for a hefty price tag of $80,000 and can earn his new connections more than that with the $105,000 winner’s share of the purse. Cathkin Peak has earned more than $400,000 in his career, winning or placing in eight of 17 previous races on the grass, some of those also stakes races including the City of Hope Mile Stakes in the fall of 2022. He’s in good current form and should be competitive. Prince Abu Dhabi is a lightly raced 4-year-old with six wins in just eight races. Only one was on turf and that was when third in the Alcatraz Stakes on the Golden Gate turf course last May. He had been away from the races from August until returning in March, winning off that seven month layoff as if he had never been away at all and earning a career-best 107 figure in the process. Likely to improve second off the layoff, Prince Abu Dhabi is another who could have a say in the outcome in this year’s San Francisco Mile Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Air Force Red (109), Astronomer (109), Balnikhov (108), Coalinga Road (105), Clovisconnection (103), Freeport Joe (113), Il Bellator (111), I’m A Gambler ( 108) and I’mgonnabesomebody (112).

Win Contenders:

Sumter
Lammas

Also contenders:
Cathkin Peak
Prince Abu Dhabi

Grade 3, $175,000 San Francisco Mile Stakes
Golden Gate Fields, Saturday, April 27 –
Race 7, Post Time 8:45 p.m. ET
3-Year-Olds and Upward, One Mile on Turf